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The research programme on Peace and Security in the MENA Region studies threats to the region’s security and analyses the role of international diplomacy in improving the prospects for peace in the short, medium and long-term.
This paper looks at ways we can constructively engage with Non-State Armed Actors (NSAAs) in peace processes, and what are the implications of such engagement for international stabilisation efforts in the Middle East and North Africa. It first describes the characteristics of NSAAs in the MENA region and then discusses the various roles NSAAs can play in decentralised states. It finally analyses the complicated relationship between NSAAs and peace processes, drawing some lessons learned from various experiences.
This EDA Working Paper aims to bring to light the numerous initiatives of international actors to defend cultural property before, during or after conflicts. The paper starts by retracing the issue of protecting cultural property in times of war in modern history. It then analyses recent developments, in particular the creation in 2017 of an International Alliance for the Protection of Heritage in Conflict Areas. Finally, the paper highlights some of the most significant issues policy-makers will need to address in the near future, including the uncertainties regarding the legal framework relating to ongoing conflicts.
This EDA Working Paper identifies factors that shape the potential for transitional justice in the MENA region to reinforce stability, foment change, and allocate power. Rather than focusing on a single case study, it references salient characteristics and challenges raised by different national and regional situations. The paper is structured around four categories: (1) the choice and design of mechanisms; (2) the conditions of transition; (3) the inclusion of economic factors; and (4) the role of memory, history, and reconciliation.
This EDA Insight reviews some of the economic and security implications of AI for the Arab Gulf countries. It first defines and reviews recent breakthroughs in AI, then looks at the economic implications of AI in terms of productivity growth, but also jobs destruction and displacement. The security implications are also analysed by focusing on autonomous weapons system and their impact on strategic stability. It is followed by analysis of some uses of AI in the cyber domain and argues that cyber AI-supported offensive operations and manipulations are likely to be the biggest challenge that the Arab Gulf countries will face in the near future. It concludes by looking at the issue of the global governance of AI.
Stabilisation has increasingly become the central guiding rationale behind international interventions in situations of conflict and peacebuilding. It has also become a core policy discourse used to articulate and describe both the content and ambitions of such interventions. This EDA Working Paper explores what has been the nature of stabilisation missions since the end of the Cold War. It compares three case studies (Uganda in the 1990s, Haiti in the 2000s and South Sudan since the mid-2000s) that have been on the recipient end of stabilisation practices.
This EDA Working Paper looks at a variety of relevant international attempts to build the conceptual and institutional toolkit for stabilisation activities. It first provides an overview of what makes stabilisation distinctive from competing concepts and practices, and then reviews a range of institutional models and bureaucratic mechanisms developed in various Euro-Atlantic countries with experience leading stabilisation responses. Along the way, the paper lays out priorities, options and ways forward that together could support ongoing attempts by new actors involved in stabilisation efforts, in particular in the MENA region, to develop their own conception of stabilisation and build the instruments they need to build state resilience and promote peace and security across the region.
This Insight evaluates the current state of Iran’s missile capabilities and assesses their potential evolution towards greater operational efficiency. The insight first provides an overview of Iran’s missile programs. It then examines the military and strategic utility of Iran’s missiles and analyses the impact of emerging capabilities on its military doctrine. Finally, the Insight assesses the implications for regional security and stability of reported transfers of Iranian missiles to non-state forces in the region.
This EDA Working Paper looks into ways to improve the humanitarian situation in Yemen in the immediate to short term. The focus is on finding solutions in four areas: the increase in food insecurity, the disruption of basic services, the spread of communicable diseases and the needs of those that are internally displaced. It argues for solutions with regard to access and distribution of vital goods throughout Yemen, stabilisation of Yemen’s financial system and ensuring indiscriminate basic service provision and for scaling up assistance and living up to aid pledges.
Iraq stands at a pivotal moment - once again. The military defeat of Daesh represents a renewed opportunity to reorient the country's trajectory towards long-term stability and economic prosperity. While the task of rebuilding areas liberated from Daesh will require sustained efforts in the coming years, the Iraqi elites must also ensure that problems of a deeper structural nature will be tackled. Without this, the military success again Daesh will soon vanish; This working Paper analyses the broad structural challenges facing the Iraqi state, along with possible solutions, in order to establish clearer priorities and options for dealing with them. In particular, three key elements of structural fragility are identified in three dimensions of the state's capacity and sustainability.
Politicians and commentators commonly talk of the need for ‘stability’ and ‘stabilisation’ when referring to the current situation in the broader Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Indeed, stabilisation is what the broader MENA region seems to be in desperate need of, but a lack of consensus around what stability entails and how to get there, might keep fueling instability instead. This paper is a first of a series that will be published as part of the EDA’s Stabilisation Research Initiative (SRI), led by EDA faculty members dr. Saskia van Genugten and dr. Victor Gervais. In this framing paper, the author offers an initial exploration of the different dimensions of stabilisation as can be found in the existing literature, thereby combining current ideas, approaches and lessons identified by practitioners and academics alike. Along the way, the paper identifies common challenges and areas for further exploration within the EDA’s research initiative.
Qualitative and quantitative data have proven the positive impact that women’s participation in the peace process has on the likelihood of a durable, positive peace – one that goes beyond the immediate absence of violence, and strives to achieve justice for all but despite the recognition of the benefits, women are still massively underrepresented in peace processes. This EDA Insight looks at how women’s participation at the peace table impacts the longevity and durability of the peace, and includes strategies and recommendations on how to bolster women’s participation at the peace table.
Issues such as Brexit, Catalonia and the rise of nationalism dominate the global headlines on Europe and tend to point towards the disintegrating of the continent. However, at the same time, a new ambition for increased European defence cooperation among the EU member states, is exposing a rather different trend that is bringing Europeans together on one of the most sensitive issues of national sovereignty: security. This EDA Insight looks at the driving factors behind Europe’s renewed assertiveness on defence matters, provides an overview of recently launched initiatives and assesses the potential implications, including for Europe’s civilian and military operations in the wider MENA region.
The countries in the MENA region have had different levels of need when it comes to foreign aid. While some countries, in particular members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), have themselves long been donors of aid, others have been highly dependent on the financial support received from more prosperous countries. Thus, one cannot but wonder how populism – in the US and Europe – and its implication for foreign aid, might impact the development and security of the MENA region. With this issue in mind, this EDA Insight examines the change in US foreign aid policy and its implications for the MENA region.
Despite all the political divisions, most Libyans can probably agree on the fact that action is needed to stabilize their country’s economy. The current economic malaise is on the one hand caused by suboptimal oil revenues due to disruptions in production, a lack of investments, and low oil prices. On the other hand Libya suffers from disputes over economic governance and pressure on national economic institutions to take sides in the ongoing political crisis. This EDA Insight provides a background on the Libyan economy and assesses both long term economic challenges as well as the additional complications caused by the civil wars.
Several countries that have been hosting large numbers of Syrian refugees since 2011 are changing their policy assumptions with regard to Syrian refugees. Instead of designing policies from a ‘temporary and humanitarian’ perspective, governments are increasingly seeking more ‘developmental and (semi-)permanent’ solutions. Labour market integration is a key aspect of this change and the authors discuss this issue through case studies of Jordan and Turkey.
Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and the Sudan are located along vital shipping routes, including the Red Sea, the Bab el Mandeb, the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. At the same time, many states in the Horn of Africa are faced with institutional, economic and security challenges. Due to the strategic importance and a reliance on external support, many global, regional and local actors contribute to the Horn’s security environment. With a specific focus on Iran, this EDA Insight assesses the interactions and realignments between external and local actors in the Horn of Africa.
Hezbollah played a significant role in the Syrian regime’s brutal takeover of Aleppo in the last battle of December 2016, albeit at high costs. This EDA Insight evaluates the current status of Hezbollah and assesses its potential evolution after the Syrian war. The Insight looks at the group’s involvement in the Syrian conflict since 2011, assesses the evolution of the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, describes the regionalization of Hezbollah’s agenda and explores two possible scenarios for the evolution of Hezbollah and their implications for regional security.
The sharp increase in refugees seeking asylum in Europe has pulled the European Union (EU) into the global humanitarian migration crisis and forced urgent action. This EDA Insight assesses recent developments in the EU’s external migration policy and looks at the implications of these policies for the EU itself as well as for the regional (in)stability of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.
The MENA region has, on average, the highest youth unemployment in the world. Educational and professional opportunities in the region remain low and with the number of young adults rapidly increasing, the issue is often not addressed with the necessary urgency.
The attempted military coup in Turkey confirmed the decreased ability of the military to intervene in Turkey’s democracy, the continuous popular support for the democratically elected government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the government’s determination to consolidate its position. This EDA Insight provides context on the coup attempt and explores the implications of its aftermath, both domestically as well as internationally.
This policy brief focuses on the strength, strategy and tactics of Daesh in Libya and assesses the range of policy instruments the international community could employ to help the legitimate Libyan authorities in their efforts to combat terrorism.
This policy brief focuses on the short-term and long-term challenges to Yemen’s economy and suggests priorities for economic recovery in Yemen in a post-conflict phase.
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